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Patrice Ract Madoux
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EDITORIAL Since it was established by government order on January 24, 1996, CADES has amortized 29 billion euros of the 110.4 billion euros that has been entrusted to it by a series of laws aimed at social security reform.
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Jean-Jacques Jégou, a Senator from the Val-de-Marne, succeeds Adrien Gouteyron as chairman of the Board. Gérard Bapt, an MP from the Haute-Garonne, succeeds Eric Besson.
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• CADES and the CRDS are established effective January 1, 1996; debt of 46.2 billion euros is assumed – Government Order dated January 24, 1996 • An additional 13.2 billion euros of debt is assumed; the lifespan of CADES is extended from 2009 to 2014 – Social Security Financing Act of 1998, dated December 19, 1997. • Non taxable retirees and unemployed workers are exempted; payment to the government is modified to partially offset the impact of this measure – Financing Act of 2001, dated December 30, 2000. • Payment to the government is stepped up (and offset), raised to 3 billion euros per annum through 2005 (instead of 2008) – Financing Act of 2002, dated December 29, 2001. • A non-offset payment of 1.3 billion euros in respect of the Forec – Social Security Financing Act of 2003, dated December 20, 2002. • A non-offset payment of 1.1 billion euros in respect of the Forec – Social Security Financing Act of 2004, dated December 18, 2003. • The debt is increased by 50 billion euros, the end date is eliminated, and the taxable base for CRDS is enlarged (from 95 to 97% of the gross wage) – Act of August 13, 2004. The assumed debt was 35 billion euros in 2004, 6.6 billion euros in 2005, and an estimated 6.7 billion euros in 2006. |
• All subsequent transfers of debt to CADES must be accompanied by a concomitant rise in tax revenue – Social Security Organic Act of 2005. • Legislation is passed allowing life insurance policies stated in euros to be transformed into unit-linked contracts, with possible impact on social taxes collected - Act 2005-842. • CADES is assigned an annual amortization target; home savings contracts in force for more than 10 years become subject to social taxation – Social Security Financing Act of 2006, dated December 19, 2005. • The government order of 1996 is modified to authorize the finance minister to issue on behalf of CADES pending enactment of a decree that specifies the technical conditions of application – Financing Act of 2006, dated December 30, 2005.
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Important remark
The debt amortization profile varies with each simulation depending on the market rates, inflation expectations and CRDS revenue increases that are used in the model.
For example, the following amortization profile emerges from a simulation produced in December 2005: median end repayment date in December 2021 (in 16 years).
At 5%, the confidence interval is dissymmetric around this median, since the total amortization period has 5 chances out of 100 of being less than 14 years, and is just as likely to be more than 20 years.
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Information about CADES Christophe Frankel christophe.frankel@cades.fr Magali CLAVIER Bloomberg CADES <GO> |